In case anyone is following this, I may try to get a little sleep in. I'll check back in after that.

Red Circle

11:52

We're just about in that thick red circle denoting the 50 knot or higher winds. Wind gusts are getting noisier as the rain continues. Definitely seeing a worsening of conditions.

Rain

10:52

Check out the radar showing the rain intensity. That's us in red.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/index.html?areaCode=210

New warnings

9:40

Not really surprising, but the region including Ise is now under official warnings for storm, heavy rain, flood and high waves.

Wind prediction

Some forecast specifics are coming to light. If the track and intensity holds as currently predicted, we may see 100 mile an hour sustained winds and gusts of up to 134 mph.

Phase shift

It's 10 to 9 and things are picking up out there. I can hear the wind whaling and bursts of rain up against the window. I just took a peak outside and saw an ambulance or something up the road. Could be unrelated but not sure. The water on the roadway looks gnarly in the wind. More later.

(The tracking images on the blog should be updating here too, or you can go check them out at their original sources. The JMA site also has a precip radar and a satellite image. )

And a note to family: If we lose power, I may change over to twitter. See my feed at www.twitter.com/danofthenorth

News reports

7:42

This article by Rueters says this may be the strongest typhoon to make landfall on a main island of Japan in 10 years. I should note that my goal here, mom, is not to scare you. But after a day of hearing some people freak out and others say "oh it's weakening" I wasn't sure what to think. I'm still not sure what I'll see here. But I feel pretty well safe and informed. There's a branch of city hall across the street and plenty of neighbors nearby.

I'll update again in a while.

Update

7 p.m

Mie and many other areas are now under the official storm warning. TV news says to expect peak wind around here at about 2 a.m. Meanwhile, about 500 ml (1.6 feet) of rain are to be associated with the storm in this area (I suppose this includes the rain that's already been falling).

We're also now inside the yellow circle here in Ise (perhaps that's what prompted the storm warning being made official). I haven't noticed any wind pick-up just yet. We shall see.

Precautions: I have extra food and water on hand. TV news said to fill the bathtub, as it can allow the toilet to flush if the normal plumbing goes out. I don't have a flashlight, but next-door neighbor and ALT colleague Anette does.

I have no idea what to expect. If it is a category 1 storm when it reaches, sustained winds could be up to 95 miles an hour .

More later ...

Home from work ... the rains pick up ... oh right, plus wind ...

It's 20 after 5 p.m. and I've arrived home from work. The rain has been going non-stop since morning, but it is just now starting to pick up. Drainage ditches through the rice fields are filling up but not overflowing. The nearby Seta River is high, but I've seen it higher in periods of heavy rain. A ways to go before even close to threatening overflow.

The wind is also stronger than this morning. Though we are not yet in the area likely to see 30+ mph winds. This photo above is the tracking of the typhoon on the Japan Meteorological Agency website. The yellow outline shows areas with winds of 30 knots or higher (34 mph). The thick red circle is areas with winds of 50 knots or higher (57 mph). The lighter red line shows a vague "storm warning area" ... which at this point is just an advisory/warning that the storm is coming.

As the hours pass we may get more specific warnings for high winds or flooding. Despite the weakening, we can still expect the storm to be Category 1 strength or borderline Category 1 / tropical storm as it moves over the area. And we are still in the section of the storm (top-right quadrant said to pack the strongest winds.

At the moment I'm just sitting at home checking info online and on TV. No big plans but I may head over to fellow ALT Conrad's apartment nearby to watch movies or TV shows and see if anything happens.

The brunt of the storm should come in the early morning hours. A decision on whether or not students have school will be broadcast around 6 a.m. Early prediction -- there will not be school. Staff still have to report, they reminded us in the morning meeting. I'll go along unless it's dangerous to go out.

More later ...

Weakening

The typhoon is weakening faster than previously expected. It's now a Category 2 storm. By the time it gets closer to our area overnight and early Thursday morning, it will be a Category 1 weakening to a tropical storm.

Certainly still cause to be carefull but it looks like less of a threat than once thought.

Typhoon Melor

On this Tuesday night, Japan is staring down a storm called Melor. At this hour, the typhoon (same as a hurricane) is moving over Minamidaito, an island that is part of the Okinawa chain.

Soon, the storm will begin to track northeast, potentially passing directly over us here on the Kii peninsula (circled in red).

Ise is on the tip of the eastward jutting peninsula-within-a-peninsula in the northeast quadrant of the circle.

Forecasts appear fuzzy as to Melor's exact center path, but here in Mie and Ise we are within the possible direct-hit area. Meanwhile, present TV predictions show the center path pushing through the middle of the Kii peninsula.

I was also reminded by the TV weather guy that the strongest part of a tropical system is to the right of the center (see image at left). Current TV predictions, then, do not bode well for this area.

Although perhaps not as strong, this storm has a path that resembles Japan's worst typhoon in recorded history, the 1959 Isewan Typhoon, named for the bay to Ise's east that extends up to Aichi prefecture and Nagoya City. That storm killed more than 5,000 people. Here is the path of that typhoon:


While the path is similar, the 1959 storm was stronger. And of course, today more precautions are in place. Better seawalls to fight flooding off the bay. Better knowledge of how to prepare and stay safe. Stronger buildings.

Nevertheless, this storm has the potential to be dangerous.

The first effects of the storm may be felt here tomorrow (Wednesday) afternoon or evening. For this reason I wouldn't be surprised if students are sent home at midday. School also could easily be closed on Thursday. This is just for students though. According to the "rules," staff still report to school.

If a staffer cannot get there, the system would expect them to use paid leave. It's laughable how ridiculous this is. I don't plan to use paid leave if I can't make it to work on Thursday. However it's fair to say the school may be safer than my low-lying, river-butting neighborhood.

I have never experienced a direct hit from a typhoon/hurricane, nor can we be sure about the strength or path of the coming storm. But at the very least I plan to stay informed and take basic precautions.