Typhoon Melor

On this Tuesday night, Japan is staring down a storm called Melor. At this hour, the typhoon (same as a hurricane) is moving over Minamidaito, an island that is part of the Okinawa chain.

Soon, the storm will begin to track northeast, potentially passing directly over us here on the Kii peninsula (circled in red).

Ise is on the tip of the eastward jutting peninsula-within-a-peninsula in the northeast quadrant of the circle.

Forecasts appear fuzzy as to Melor's exact center path, but here in Mie and Ise we are within the possible direct-hit area. Meanwhile, present TV predictions show the center path pushing through the middle of the Kii peninsula.

I was also reminded by the TV weather guy that the strongest part of a tropical system is to the right of the center (see image at left). Current TV predictions, then, do not bode well for this area.

Although perhaps not as strong, this storm has a path that resembles Japan's worst typhoon in recorded history, the 1959 Isewan Typhoon, named for the bay to Ise's east that extends up to Aichi prefecture and Nagoya City. That storm killed more than 5,000 people. Here is the path of that typhoon:


While the path is similar, the 1959 storm was stronger. And of course, today more precautions are in place. Better seawalls to fight flooding off the bay. Better knowledge of how to prepare and stay safe. Stronger buildings.

Nevertheless, this storm has the potential to be dangerous.

The first effects of the storm may be felt here tomorrow (Wednesday) afternoon or evening. For this reason I wouldn't be surprised if students are sent home at midday. School also could easily be closed on Thursday. This is just for students though. According to the "rules," staff still report to school.

If a staffer cannot get there, the system would expect them to use paid leave. It's laughable how ridiculous this is. I don't plan to use paid leave if I can't make it to work on Thursday. However it's fair to say the school may be safer than my low-lying, river-butting neighborhood.

I have never experienced a direct hit from a typhoon/hurricane, nor can we be sure about the strength or path of the coming storm. But at the very least I plan to stay informed and take basic precautions.